Circulation in Gulf still poorly organized. Tropical Depression will likely develop over the next day or two. National Hurricane Center gives a 70% chance of this occurring. Once it develops it will likely drift slowly north into early next week. At that point models diverge with some taking the storm ENE toward Florida, others more to the SW toward the lower Texas coast or perhaps Mexico. Until storm develops, model tracks should be viewed with caution as the exact location of development will play a role in how it is steered by the larger scale flow. One potential impact for early next week…tide levels are already running a foot to a foot and a half above normal. Should the storm strengthen and sit over the Gulf, additional rises will be possible with potential for minor coastal flooding. Again all that depends on how much the storm strengthens.

A slide set describing these impacts can be downloaded from this link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/hgx/brief/NWS_briefing_jun_22_2012.pptx

Dan Reilly

Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
281-534-2157 ext. 223