Still looking at potential for development of tropical system (TS Debby?) in the Gulf over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of development to 50% over the next 48 hour period (see attached graphic). Once it does develop it should move very slowly. The direction of movement is still uncertain. It still could drift northeast but a westward drift is also possible. Yesterday the majority of models favored that NE movement, this afternoon they are move divided with some models taking the storm toward the west. A few of the models actually have a Texas landfall in around 7 days.

Until we actually have a center of circulation form models will have a tough time tracking. Bottom line…will need to monitor Gulf for development over next few days and look at track projections as the storm gets better organized. Stay tuned.

No matter what happens in the Gulf, we are looking at very hot conditions as we get late in the weekend…with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 and heat indices at 105 or even higher.

Dan Reilly

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

281-534-2157 ext. 223