Looking at the latest model guidance looking at the potential for the development of a tropical system over the next several days over the Gulf of Mexico. Attached is the surface map projection for Saturday morning showing a Low over the Gulf with a trough of low pressure (dashed line) extending NE from there. Model solutions vary on location of development. If it does occur it could be anywhere from the Bay of Campeche or farther NE along that trough axis in the NE Gulf. Models won’t be able to define location very well until we actually see something start to form. If it were to form movement would be relatively slow as steering currents are weak.

As far as impacts to our area at this point too early to say if there will be any impact at all. Tide levels are already running about 1 foot above normal and should remain elevated through the week (but below coastal flood levels). That could leave us susceptible to some coastal flooding IF we get a tropical system but again too early to say if that will happen.

We’ll keep you updated.