AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY- MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO- TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON- 423 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE…

 

TONIGHT EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND SHEAR EXISTS…THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.

STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59.   BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.

THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROBABLY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…

A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING EXISTS. THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IF IT STALLS OFF THE COAST…THE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD END UP BEING OFFSHORE.

IF IT STALLS INLAND…THE HEAVY RAINS COULD DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59.

IF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OR OFF THE COAST…

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT WOULD END UP LOWER THAN EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.